Give Or Take Half A Century

For those who don't sift through the storied history of apocalyptic fiction like Left Behind, the name Hal Lindsey might not mean much. He's an important guy, though -- in the 1970s, he wrote a relatively influential book entitled The Late Great Planet Earth that laid out his vision for a grim post-Christian future. It was a critical bridge between old-school rapture-watching movements like the Jehovah's Witnesses, and the post-hippie Jesus Movement that was starting to transition into broader American culture.

There have been quite a few imitators, and Hal Lindsey never really duplicated the success of TLGPE, but through the 70s, 80s, and even the early 90s, he was one of the respected elders of the Christian Armageddon-Is-Coming set. Our very own Trost was kind enough to set me up with one of his lesser-known classics from that era, The 1980s: Countdown to Armageddon. It's an interesting study in the 'non-fiction apocalypse warning' genre, with a generous side of cold war paranoia.

The basic structure of Countdown is the same as most other apocalypse books. Biblical prophecies about Israel and the end of the world (with a heavy focus on Daniel, Ezekiel, and Revelation) are woven together with anecdotes about the latest developments in global politics. The emphasis is on demonstrating how accurately Biblical prophets predicted the landscape of the 1980s, and -- more importantly -- what the author feels they said about what is soon to come.

Lindsey's talking points are a scattershot mix. The Roman Empire will be revived before birthing the Antichrist ("Greece just joined the European Common Market! That makes 10 nations, just like Scripture says..."), Muslims will continue to hate Israel and Pakistan might get nuclear weapons, and -- here's where it flounders -- The U.S.S.R. will sweep through the Mideast, conquering and invading on its way to destroy Israel.

Yeeeeaaaaah. About that one.

Lindsey's chapters of wildly off-the-mark predictions about Soviet dominance aren't shocking considering the mood when the book was written. Reagan had just arrived as president, and The Evil Empire was still lookin' good, poised like an industrial nuke-bearing giant over Europe. It does, though, reveal the dangers that Prophecy aficionados face. Reading 'prophetic fulfillment' into current events is easy. Speculating on events that sound plausible and could fulfill prophecy if they happend? That's even easier! Getting them right? Way tougher.

Studied at twenty-five years later, it's clear that Lindsey's predictions had far less to do with Biblical prophecy than they did with consensus opinion about world politics at the time. It's a bit like reading kitschy "How will you spend your prom in the year 2000?" articles from the 50s: you don't learn much about the year 2000, but you learn a lot about the writer's own era. Turns out, none of us danced in Zero-G on the moon!

For a science fiction writer, that kind of speculation is part of the job description, and the hit/miss ratio isn't very problematic. For someone who's making the case that God Has Spoken About What Will Soon Happen, though, things are trickier. Lindsey and those who follow him have a long memory for prophecies they feel came true, but quickly move on when things don't work out so well. Soviet conquest of the Middle East, say. That kind of only-remember-the-good-parts approach has a name: Selection bias. Sometimes it's funny, but it's dangerous, too. That's why books like The 1980s: Countdown to Armageddon are important to remember. Letting them slide into obscurity only serves to give the next round of apocalypse predictions a free ride.